46 Comments
Aug 11, 2022Liked by Daniel Kotzin

Another difference is that most of Africa either did not "lock down" or did so very partially and for short periods of time, basically because these are not laptop-economies and people need to get out and physically work.

Also, there was very little mask wearing in most of Africa, again for financial reasons.

Hmm ... no lockdowns, no masks and no injections ... most Africans should be dead of C19, right?

But, let's not allow incovenient evidence to get in the way of cute feel-good policy.

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Aug 11, 2022Liked by Daniel Kotzin

When you peddle gasoline as fire retardant you end up with a virtuous cycle for those profiting from selling the gas. The higher the flames, the more fire retardant is required. It never ends until the arsonists are arrested.

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One hypothesis is that Africa, as well as a set of other countries (east Asia) had pre-existing immunity from previous similar viruses, e.g., SARS, but also others that did not propagate widely in the rest of the world. @EthicalSkeptic (Twitter) has been analyzing data and presenting the (detailed) basis of this hypothesis. His mode of communication can be quite hard to parse -- but this is not a random guess, at any rate, whatever its merits. I have also seen other hypotheses involving the mainstream use of hydroxychloroquine in Africa. Hard to verify.

On your charts above, deaths in Africa were lower even pre-vaccine, so there would appear to be other factors involved.

Of course the mainline answer is that they just don't know how to count cases and deaths in the dark continent. Only the advanced West really knows how to do that, apparently. And therefore vaccines have to be shoved down their throats, unwillingly, per the WHO. A sort of benign colonialism, if you will.

The age differential explanation is not credible at least to my eyes given the enormous gap, per your comment above. But, again, note that it predates vaccine availability.

Jan Van Ruth: Thanks for the condescension; it's become the norm, and those of us who have been looking at the data, and seeking hypotheses that are consistent with the data, expect nothing less at this point. While we're at it, perhaps you should go ahead and report that misinfo is being spread. Also the norm. Keep the faith. The Science will save us.

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you looking at the data?

what data?

you have the actual data on the population pyramid of those 4 african countries?

of course you don't.

you just "feel" that the gap is too big to be explained by the age differential.

all the time having not a clue about what the age differential actually is....

you are nothing but an ignorant fraud with a lot of pretence.

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They will claim that Africa does not keep proper record.

The real control arm is the period before the vaccine started.

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author

They may claim that, but dead bodies are hard to hide.

The iterations of the virus before mass vaccination were likely both less contagious and more lethal, and there are many other confounders.

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They are plenty of dead bodies already. People continue to believe the liars; so they will continue to lie to them!

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author

Not many dead bodies in Africa though.

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The problem is some will believe what they say. Otherwise no liars would lie.

For example, I would not lie to you that I am a billionaire since I know you won't believe me.

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no i am not.

nor do i want to be.

second hand car salesmen are nice.

if you are an asshole, i will say so.

nothing wrong with being straightforward.

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Your observation is NOT CORRECT and I do NOT AGREE with anything you write:

Strong correlation evidence has been posted between injections and deaths.

You have desperately tried to refute this by positing, falsely, that the African countries identified have some weird, perverse population distributions. This is FALSE.

You then tried to desperately say that IVM might be a reason but it is not used in Egypt as much as in the other cited African countries. Again, this is FALSE.

You have never presented any data or evidence to support your very outlandish, weird and bizarre attempts to undermine the very strong and explicit correlation between injections and deaths.

These weird ideas that bizarre population age distributions and IVM use can alone explain the strong correlation between injections and deaths, are YOUR IDEAS. Not mine.

You have never presented any evidence at all in support of YOUR IDEAS.

Because none exists.

End of.

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Just to re-cap:

This discussion started when Daniel Kotzin presented widely divergent death rates between Europe and Africa, along with widely divergent injection rates, and postulated a causal relationship.

He also presented significantly divergent injection rates between African countries, and showed there was a corresponding divergence in death rates there.

You countered that this must be because of age demographics, since sars-cov2 is only a significant risk to the elderly and those with acute underlying conditions.

I countered that, while age demographics in Africa are much younger than Europe, the difference in death rates is too large to be accounted for just by that, and asked what about the difference between African countries with similar age demographics, and gave the median ages.

You countered that median age may not be representative because some of these countries could have, somehow, skewed populations with large numbers of people over 70.

I then produced the data showing this is not the case and these countries have largely similar, normal distributions across age groups.

Now you are saying a main difference is that sub-Saharan African countries have an advantage over Egypt (that has a higher injection rate and a higher death rate) because of a drug routinely taken to combat Onchocerca Volvulus, aka "River Blindness".

The drug in question is of course Ivermectin (or "horse paste" according to the CDC) and you will find it was made by Merck, not Pfizer. The patent has since run out and it is now mass produced all over the world.

Ivermectin is effective at combatting many viral and parasitic conditions, such as head lice and scabies, very prevalent in Egypt and where you can get IVM for insignificant cost "over the counter". I know this, because that is where I sourced my supply.

Another freely available drug in these African countries, as well as Egypt (where I also got my supply) is the effective anti-malarial, Hydroxychloroquine, that was used to help treat Donald Trump when he got C19 (at the sprightly young age of 74).

Since there is obviously a problem establishing a causal relationship based on the strong correlation between injection rates and death rates, and since age demographics and IVM/HCQ use cannot explain that inbetween Africal countries (although it is probably a factor in the large difference between Europe and Africa), let me help by suggesting an alternative mechanism that can explain the difference in death rates between Africa and Europe, and inbetween African countries, and which has nothing to do with the miracle "safe'n'effective" injections:

Vladimir Putin.

People in Europe get very angry when they see pictures of Mr Putin, and this leads to a marked risk in myocarditis and other conditions, causing the elevated death rates. Heck, Vlad is so unpopular that top athletes have been known to drop dead just by casually thinking about him while running around playing fields.

But, and maybe because they have more active outdoor lives and don’t get to spend so much time glued to 24-hour “news” TV, people in Africa are not so exercised by the Ukraine conflict, except, that is, in Egypt, which buys most of its grain from Ukraine and whose resorts used to have lots of Ukrainian tourists.

So, that explains it all.

I am fairly confident that the "fact-checkers" at Reuters will back me up on this.

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i wonder what the average or median age is those countries............

how stupid do you think your audience is?

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Aug 11, 2022Liked by Daniel Kotzin

PS. I would add that although demographics may partially explain the difference between African and European countries, but how to explain the difference between different African countries with the same general demographic but clearly different death figures?

I looked it up quickly for the 4 nations in the first graph: Egypt 23, Ethiopia 20, Nigeria 22 and DRC 19.

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the same general demographic?

i doubt it very much.

my guess is that the differences between the countries can already be explained solely by the percentage of the population above 70 yeas of age.

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author

First of all, that means that you believe that covid vaccination rates have no effect at all on covid death rates.

Secondly, why should anyone care about your hunches?

Thirdly, why do you keep insulting me and my readers?

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what covid deaths rates?

maybe, mind you just maybe, some readers that aren't as ignorant as you seem to be, would be in the position to be able and be tempted to dig up the numbers and prove my guess wrong or correct?

i am not insulting your readers.

besides, you are perfectly capable of doing that yourself.

i do have to correct myself though.

when i wrote that the writer knows better, i was incorrect.

the writer seems to beat least as ignorant as his writings suggest...

the fact that you have a substack page does mean jack shit.

every tom, dick and harry can have a substack page.

and that does not mean that tom, dick, harry or you are anything but an ignorant idiot with an opinion and a enormously inflated ego.

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You just want to be dense and dopy. Your jab doesn't fucking work. Give up your lame ass religion.

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my jab?my religion?

so everyone that calls out the frauds immediately is placed in the opposite camp?

where did i give you any indication about my stance on vaccination?

you had better learn to think before you speak, you fucking idiot.

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And any dumb fuck like you can post comments

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Aug 12, 2022Liked by Daniel Kotzin

You are proposing that "median" age is not representative (in only these cases?) and these populations have some bizarre skewed distributions. At any rate this is demonstrably false as you - or anyone - can ascertain by checking the population distribution by age group:

Egypt: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1230371/total-population-of-egypt-by-age-group/

Ethiopia: https://www.statista.com/statistics/455134/age-structure-in-ethiopia/

Nigeria: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1121317/age-distribution-of-population-in-nigeria-by-gender/

DRC: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Population-age-distribution_tbl1_263656686

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median age has very little relevance.

relevant is the percentage of the population that is in the vulnerable age group.

and a rather small difference in that percentage could result in quite a big difference in "death rate".

the difference between egypt and ethiopia probably is too small to explain the difference between the two countries.

in view of the fact that, in order to be able to die of covid19, one first has to be infected with sarscov2, and become seriously ill with covid19, a better explanation for the difference would be the fact that people in those four countries have different incidences of infections with a certain parasite.

a study has established that in ethiopia virtually none of the patients hospitalised with severe covid19 were infected with Onchocerca volvulus whilst the parasite is quite common in the general population.

the scientists drew the conclusion that the parasite somehow protected the inflicted person against covid19.

they did not elaborate upon the mechanism that would be responsible for the rather curious situation.

however they did, be it quite casually, divulge that some 50 % of the population quite regularly took a drug to combat the infestation.

it seems that in 3 of the 4 countries, except egypt that is, a major part of the population is infected with Onchocerca volvulus and takes a certain drug on a regular basis.

as it happens if one were to project on a map of africa for each country the percentage of people taking that are infested with Onchocerca volvulus and the percentage of people having died from covid19, one would see quite a remarkable correlation.

and remarkably enough that same would go for the middle american countries, where Onchocerca volvulus is quite ubiquitous in some countries.

do i need to name the drug that is used to combat Onchocerca volvulus?

the drug company that provided the WHO for decades, for free!, with millions and millions of bottles of the very drug that made the vaccine uptake in those african countries a little problematic, was Pfizer......

with that move Pfizer bought their influence in the WHO.

no good deed goes unpunished, the saying goes .....

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Just to re-cap:

This discussion started when Daniel Kotzin presented widely divergent death rates between Europe and Africa, along with widely divergent injection rates, and postulated a causal relationship.

He also presented significantly divergent injection rates between African countries, and showed there was a corresponding divergence in death rates there.

You countered that this must be because of age demographics, since sars-cov2 is only a significant risk to the elderly and those with acute underlying conditions.

I countered that, while age demographics in Africa are much younger than Europe, the difference in death rates is too large to be accounted for just by that, and asked what about the difference between African countries with similar age demographics, and gave the median ages.

You countered that median age may not be representative because some of these countries could have, somehow, skewed populations with large numbers of people over 70.

I then produced the data showing this is not the case and these countries have largely similar, normal distributions across age groups.

Now you are saying a main difference is that sub-Saharan African countries have an advantage over Egypt (that has a higher injection rate and a higher death rate) because of a drug routinely taken to combat Onchocerca Volvulus, aka "River Blindness".

The drug in question is of course Ivermectin (or "horse paste" according to the CDC) and you will find it was made by Merck, not Pfizer. The patent has since run out and it is now mass produced all over the world.

Ivermectin is effective at combatting many viral and parasitic conditions, such as head lice and scabies, very prevalent in Egypt and where you can get IVM for insignificant cost "over the counter". I know this, because that is where I sourced my supply.

Another freely available drug in these African countries, as well as Egypt (where I also got my supply) is the effective anti-malarial, Hydroxychloroquine, that was used to help treat Donald Trump when he got C19 (at the sprightly young age of 74).

So, as there is clearly a problem establishing a causal relationship based on the strong correlation between injection rates and death rates, and since age demographics and IVM/HCQ use cannot explain that correlation between African countries (although it is probably a factor in the large difference between Europe and Africa), let me help by suggesting an alternative mechanism that can explain the difference in death rates between Africa and Europe, and inbetween African countries, and which has nothing to do with the miracle "safe'n'effective" injections:

Vladimir Putin.

People in Europe get very angry when they see pictures of Mr Putin, and this leads to a marked risk in myocarditis and other conditions, causing the elevated death rates. Heck, Vlad is so unpopular that top athletes have been known to drop dead just by casually thinking about him while running around playing fields.

But, and probably because they have more active outdoor lives and don’t get to spend so much time glued to 24-hour “news” TV, people in Africa are not so exercised by the Ukraine conflict, except, that is, in Egypt, which buys most of its grain from Ukraine and whose tourist resorts used to have lots of Ukrainian visitors.

So, here is an explanation for the widely divergent death rates between various parts of the world, and which does not cast any aspersions whatsoever on the miracle injections.

I am fairly confident that the "fact-checkers" at Reuters will back me up on this.

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you only produced the data for egypt and ethiopia, not for nigeria and the drc.

i never mentioned acute underlying conditions.

if you are to summarise my statements, please do so correctly.

" Hydroxychloroquine, that was used to help treat Donald Trump when he got C19"

really?

and how do you know that to be the case?

maybe you should not believe everything they tell you on news tv?

"and IVM/HCQ use cannot explain that correlation between African countries "

wow, that was quite a jump to a conclusion.

from ivermectin being readily available in egypt to : it cannot explain the correlation.

how about you produce numbers about the actual use of ivermectin in egypt?

preferably the numbers would be divided into age groups?

i stand corrected, it was merck not pfizer.

what viral conditions is ivermectin proven to be effective in combating, may i ask?

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Aug 11, 2022Liked by Daniel Kotzin

Yes, African countries are on average much younger than the West, and C19 is only a real threat to the very elderly and those with serious underlying conditions. But, the difference is so enormous, it is doubtful this demographic difference can explain it exclusively. (Leaving aside the official narrative in Western countries, that ignores age stratified risk and is now pushing injections into children as young as 6 months.)

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the official narrative is irrelevant.

the writer knows better but is just trying to score cheap points.

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Egypt has a very young population too so your narrative is fucking lame you big dope.

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so we can assume you actually have the numbers then?

and we can expect you to give them to us?

for if you don't we will all have to assume you are nothing but a load mouthed ignoramus....

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You are the dumb fuck here. Fauci is triple boosted so is Biden. Both get Covid after the boosters, both take paxlovid and they rebound. The vaccine is so great you need 4 shots and paxlovid. Get a clue. You’ve been conned but you’d rather be in denial so you feel better

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i was incorrect in calling you a fucking idiot.

that was an insult to all the real fuycking idiots in the world.

for you are way beyond all of those fucking idiots.

fauci is triple boosted?

and so is biden?

both take paxlovid?

really?

you still believe everything they tell you?

you really think that fauci was injected with the same stuff he knows is quite likely to do some serious damage?

and you dare say i have been conned?

you better grow a brain fast...

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Sadly you must belong to the leftist death cult, the same cult who’d complain about big pharma 10 years ago but that now defends it because the high priests of the left have said so. Your kind is lame. Pathetic sheep that can’t look at actual facts. Total eunuchs

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now where did i defend big pharma?

please show it to the audience.

just quote me defending big pharma.

maybe you should learn to read the actual lines and not what you think is written in between them.

for you truely suck at reading between the lines.

actual facts?

you dare speak about actual facts?

you wouldn't recognise a fact if it bit you in the but...

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